Nunn is out of the country. I've also got good word that its not Kerry. So, back to Daschle? Maybe, or how about Reed?  

Obama and about 5 people know now, and they are good at keeping the secret.

Update [2008-8-21 17:20:19 by Todd Beeton]:A friend is telling me that CNN is reporting that the announcement will come "any minute."

Update [2008-8-21 18:17:52 by Todd Beeton]:Why the announcement may not be imminent at all. From The Fix:

One other interesting side note about the housing story: If Obama's campaign had planned to roll out their vice presidential pick at any point today, that announcement is likely to be put on hold. Why? The campaign believes the story about McCain's many houses is political gold and they won't want to step on it with a veep announcement that would immediately change the day's storyline.

Update [2008-8-21 21:13:6 by Jerome Armstrong]: The Page is thinking that Obama's signal today saying that "I want somebody who's independent, somebody who can push against my preconceived notions and challenge me so we have got a robust debate in the White House."

... means Dick Lugar, who has already endorsed McCain?!?! Man overboard!!!!

Update [2008-8-21 22:18:55 by Jerome Armstrong]: Tom Watson, with his thoughts concluding the night. We will know tomorrow.

Two people you wouldn't expect, David Gergen and Nate Silver, making the late case for Clinton as the game-changer Obama needs (Gergen also mentions Gore). They are both right but, what Obama has been personally told by Tom Daschle is to pick someone whom is an ally, someone whom he already trusts, on his side from the get-go - and not have to build it with the VP choice going forward. No offense to David & Nate, but I think Obama's listening to Tom on his VP choice.

Other than Clinton or Gore, there is one other game-changer out there: John Kerry. I know that will raise the ire of many among us, but not myself. If JK is picked, I'll delve more into it, but suffice to point to a HuffPost on the topic by M.S. Bellows, Jr. and Mayhill Fowler.

Kerry's a better choice than Tom Daschle, and a better choice than Biden, Kaine, or Bayh. OK, I've convinced myself, and now officially abandon Daschle with my VP prediction moving to Kerry. Look, if Obama's not going to choose Clinton (all signs point toward that being the case), and Gore is unavailable, then given the late date, it seems likely to be someone that's very well known and ready to go, which is a description of very few Democrats, one of which is Kerry.

Lots of new national polls today, suffice to say that you can find them all on RCP or Pollster.  RCP has Obama up by 1.2% and Pollster has Obama up by 1.6% today in their poll of polls average, so about 45 to 43.5 is where we are at right now.

Now we get to the next phase, with VP announcements and conventions all jam-packed into the next 15 days. I am not counting on seeing a large bounce from the current margin by either candidate. But, if either candidate gets a bounce above 4% from their going-in margin, that would be significant. 4% being the average bounce in the past three elections for both sides. So, Obama's average going above 49% or McCain above 47.5% and we have a candidate breaking out of the current range.

Gallup looks at all the bounces for recent conventions:

A fairly predictable range for the Republicans, but one all over the map for Democrats.

Wow, Clinton sure does have a packed schedule in Florida on Thursday (see it in the extended entry) on behalf of Obama. Makes Maureen Dowd look stupid.

There was a big Bayh boon earlier today that got shot down.

Biden took a successful dump.

Dana Goldstein revels with anticipation in watching the furitive reactions to a Sebelius nod. How unity of Dana.

Late last night, did I really predict that Daschle would be the VP?

Obama is in VA today stumping with Warner, and tomorrow, he's doing a town hall event with Kaine, with reports that Obama is spending the night in Richmond.

The good thing is that its now less than 48 hours till you will know.

Update [2008-8-20 19:1:36 by Jerome Armstrong]: I was looking at the map yesterday, thinking the same tour thing as what Nate blogged, but I recall reading somewhere about Obama being in WI and E. IA after IL as well...

A couple of profiles on the Obama operation.

The first, written by Dana Goldstein and Ezra Klein is one of the first to really get at the 'meat & potatoes' of what made it all click for Obama to win the nomination. Basically, Obama has terrific skills himself, but the inheritance of Daschle's DC team (which had already been primed for an '04 race), and the rise of Dean's 50-State Strategy of grassroots and netroots organizing, laid the table for the newcomer to go to the front of the pack. They have excelled at every stage of the campaign, except closing the deal.

The second, on the WaPost, by Jose Antonio Vargas, profiles the Obama web team. It profiles the operation that Joe Rospars has built around YouTube, Social Networking, and Text-Messaging. A nice piece of work in gathering up the most prominent pieces of strategy that the Obama campaign is executing in their online strategy. It doesn't get into their fundraising efforts, their online advertising, or their one-to-one recruitment, but instead focuses on the new media tactics.

Rospars has no peers when it comes to knowing how to write an effective fundraising email. He's done a terrific job at the things set out in the profile and more, but for the life of me, I cannot figure out why he hasn't pursued a blog outreach strategy to date. I'm not talking about a constituency relationship or blogads, but a strategic message one. One that recognizes the blogs as being more powerful in concert with what the campaign is trying to do in opposition to McCain, and coordinating the execution of that strategic message. I'm sure that Josh Orton can speak more to the fault here, so hopefully he'll chime in somewhere with his commentary.

This isn't a ground-breaking idea I'm talking about, but a strategy that's been executed successfully many times over in winning contests over the past few years. Joe was a blogger with Ezra and Nico Pitney at 'Not Genius' back in 2002-03, and then with the Dean campaign, so its not like he doesn't get it. Even John McCain executes on the strategy. Joe ought to do some outreach himself to Peter Daou, who was in a similar situation in '04 with Kerry's campaign. Kerry had won the primary without any help at all from the blogs, and it wasn't until after the swiftboating explosion in August that the Kerry campaign realized they had a problem with controlling the message via the blogosphere. It was probably too late for Peter to do much, but he certainly dived in and worked well with the blogosphere in those last few months to develop an opposition message strategy against Bush.

Now, of course, a number of things have changed, including two big things, which the Obama campaign has recognized. First, blogs have went mainstream, all the traditional media outlets have bloggers and they are 24/7 bloggers with access. They've effectively become the online outreach vehicles for the Obama campaign message push-- the Marc Ambinder, Ben Smith, and Jake Tapper world. Second, there's a world of social networking sites that have huge numbers of available for finding voters and for organizing supporters, and the Obama campaign has leveraged those like none other. But neither have replaced the partisan blogosphere, which has grown about 10X since 2004 in terms of bloggers and readership.

And without the outreach, partisan Democratic bloggers are left on their own to pursue a decentralized strategy which has largely wandered in the desert looking for an attack angle on McCain. Bloggers complain about there not being a consistent message from Obama against McCain because nothing is being coordinated from within the campaign for outreach purposes.

I had to make a prediction, so there it is now.

We know Obama likes Daschle, we know Daschle was vetted, and we know he has a speaker slot on Wed. We even know he's floated as a potential CoS in the WH. It makes sense too, of the whole VP process we've been watching unfold for Obama.

What do you think of an Obama/Daschle ticket?

What Daschle has said this week about the VP slot:

Update [2008-8-19 23:55:14 by Jerome Armstrong]: I missed this at the end of last week, but Markos also is picking Daschle. He points back to a Trapper John prediction of it on July 30th. Now, Trapper John couldn't have been more wrong, given the last three weeks of McCain gains, in his summation of where Obama's candidacy stands against McCain, but his logic for why Daschle is still sound.

Video: "Hey guys, I'm not the guy. See ya."

I'll take him at his word. He goes golfing...

Obama supporter BTD on TL:

Haha, jeralyn had her graphic ready:

I'd agree with her assessment of how its going to happen:

MyDD will have all 4 of its bloggers at the DNCC convention. I'll be getting in on Sat morn, and not leaving till Friday next, a first-in last-out sorta fun. The DNC added more speakers (below the fold).

For those following along and marking off names as they get named to speak, "On Wednesday, August 27th, new speakers addressing the theme of Securing America's Future include Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley."

Yes, it is a bit strange to name the night the same as Wes Clark's PAC, and not have him involved in speaking about that issue... but he's not, and there you have it.

It has been announced that Gore is speaking on Thursday. The only ones left, whom are talked about as VP but are not yet named to speak thus far, are Kaine and Dodd, both of whom we know, were vetted. So that's the poll below.

Update [2008-8-19 17:15:27 by Jerome Armstrong]: Kaine is speaking on Thur night, he and Gore are speaking before Obama.

Let the Doddmania begin! Long live the DoddSquad!!