The Money Game

Yes, back at the tick-toc, countdown clock.

Known, vehemently, as the blackard "money game".

Anyone who knows ANYTHING, about politics know this.

Quarter 3 is the slowest quarter of them all in raising monies.  People are busy with school out, fishing (me, yes I got the pictures and walleyes to back it), golfing, vacationing, camping, etc.  So, these campaigns end up much lower in the money game.

But this cycle is a wicked one.  Meaning?  I don't know what to expect.

Now both camps are pooh-poohing the expectations game.  

Yes, that is part of the money game.

Clinton camp is stating that Obama is going to raise 30M.  Now I am here to TELL YOU, if he does that, I will reveal myself.  OK?

Obama is stating he is 15-19M and that Clinton will raise 35M.  If that happens, I may have to SWITCH to Clinton, for real.

An aide to Clinton's campaign tells ABC News that they expect to have raised between $17 and $20 million in the third quarter fundraising period between July 1 and Sept. 30, and suggested the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., will raise over $30 million, thanks in large part to online donations -- -- even though they have no direct knowledge of what Obama will raise.

Blaming a vacationing donor base during the summer months of July and August, and suggesting previous donors have "maxed out" their contributions to the New York senator in the first two fundraising quarters, the Clinton campaign predicted Obama's campaign will beat them by over $10 million, perhaps setting the bar high for their rival.

Now the word is that the both will bring in the low 20M, but Clinton has the edge.

A failure to out-raise Clinton would deprive Obama of the momentum he needs to overcome his rival's significant leads in national and key state polls. Obama raised $33 million to her $27 million in the second quarter and ended up with more cash on hand for the primary elections. His campaign had aimed to be able to outspend her significantly in the last part of 2007 and early next year.

``The Clinton juggernaut is moving if she out-raises him this quarter,'' said Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with any candidate this year. ``It makes the argument for her winnability an easier one.''

But she is vague on her donor list which has taken a life of its own this cycle.  Why?  It shows the breathe of one's campaign.  Obama is the candidate that the internet donors are donating to, and in a big way.  Just look at his tic-tock clock, it is shattering.  That number represents people who have donated, but more so, people who are still donating.

So even, if Obama is off a mil or two, it really does not minimize anything.  Especially, if the number of donations on Clinton side is targeted for the general vs. the primary.

So, why the fixation?  

Simple.  A campaign is two dimensional.  The candidate, with message of who he/she is and the message they bring.  And the money.  Which shows the viability of a candidate, support, and strength.

For the democrats, unlike the republicans, the honey pot has been generous this cycle.  Democrats, Independents and Repubicans have been excited by our candidates.  But now we are coming to the final quarter before the game starts.

Now people are looking at who will win.  Especially these early states.  And some have stated that is why SEIU is holding off its endorsemnt.  Waiting for Q3 numbers.

Why?

Well, these unions jumped the shark in 2004 and are looking these candidates over with a fine tooth comb. Any candidate getting the SEIU endorsement, will get a 2 million union member backing.  So, as they asked the candidate campaigns to present how they will win, don't think they have not pushed their decision back to October to look at these Q3 numbers.  I think it will all be put into play.

LINK, LINK



Display:


Re: The Money Game (none / 0)

Now I am here to TELL YOU, if he does that, I will reveal myself.  OK?

- What the hell do you mean by that .

Are you some sort of alien or something.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:46:20 PM EST

Re: The Money Game (none / 0)

We are ALL ALIENS on these sites, ok?


by iamready on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:50:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

he's Matt Stoller's sock puppet (none / 0)

he uses all the same bs insider lingo (learned from watching reruns of the West Wing I'm sure) and he thinks he knows everything about everything (just like Stoller)and he's just DYING to tell ya he went to Ha-Vard (just like Matt Stoller)


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Democrat Party "Hack" and President Harry S Truman
by holden caulfield on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 08:57:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I play two rounds of golf a week (none / 0)

I am still paying attention and I still made a couple small donations to two candidates that I favor.


by dpANDREWS on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:49:59 PM EST

Re: I play two rounds of golf a week (none / 0)

All of us need to be paying attention, and hopefully the rest of the country will start paying attention.


by iamready on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:50:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Money Game (2.00 / 1)

He's in good shape...here's some math:

He will end the quarter with around 100,000 new donors...

Chop off 1000 for the Oprah bash and you still have 99000 new donors.

Q1 = 104000 donors = 26.5 million = $254 avg
Q2 = 150000 donors = 33.0 million = $220 avg

Oprah raised 3 mil for him and all the other 99000 donors have to average is $171 per to reach 20 million.

Here are some other scenarios:

Q3 = 100000 donors = 20.0 million = $200 avg
Q3 = 100000 donors = 22.0 million = $220 avg
Q3 = 100000 donors = 25.4 million = $254 avg

He's had a great quarter and will have a great debate tonight...God willing


by chicagogene on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:51:54 PM EST

Re: The Money Game (none / 0)

I am not a poll persons or money cruncher, but that looks solid.  At the rate he is going he will surpass 100K in new donors.  So, I see 20-23M a reality.


by iamready on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:56:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Money Game (none / 0)

Agreed...he will have plenty of money to roll with...lets not forget the fact that HRC gave herself 10 mil from her senate account initially.


by chicagogene on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 12:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Matt - baby - (none / 0)

we knows what your not - but since youze just started getting involved in politics at all in 2002 and have worked in how many campaigns...lets see...ONE...what the hell do you actually think you are....

Oh yeah, the one and future king of the Democratic Party!

Well, ya might have convinced Lux - but the rest of us old timers have our doubts!

LOL!


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Democrat Party "Hack" and President Harry S Truman
by holden caulfield on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 09:03:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The leaks from the Clinton side ... (none / 0)

They were pretty accurate in Q1 and Q2 if I recall -  at least regarding CLinton's number.  So if they say 17 to 20 million, I'd put it at around 19 million.

1st. Q Predictions had Clinton at 23 to 30 and she bagged 26mil (Plus a 10 million transfer for 36).

The second Q predictions was said to be roughly the same amount raised as the first Q - and Clinton ended up with 27 mil.


by dpANDREWS on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:02:01 PM EST

Re: The leaks from the Clinton side ... (none / 0)

I think both will be withing 1-3M of each other, and depending on what is primary vs. general monies.  Armbinder, I remember the link below, was pretty much on it.  But the campaign (Obama's) said they are alright.


by iamready on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:12:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Note: This guy had good predictions (none / 0)

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2007/06/some_second_quarter_fundrai sin.php


by dpANDREWS on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:03:40 PM EST

Re: The Money Game (none / 0)

We won't know until later in the month the respective campaign's burn rates. We've got some preliminary indication based on tv spending in Iowa, where Obama has dropped >$3m, Hillary about half that, Richardson not far behind Hillary, and Edwards almost nothing at all. If that is indicative of overall spending, Hillary will have a large COH advantage but Edwards may be in surprisingly strong shape in terms of COH, close to Obama.

There's also the issue of ceilings. If Hillary's report shows her fundraising to still be highly reliant on maxed-out donors, then there may be some question about where she would go for support after the early states, if as expected it comes down to a one on one battle between her and Obama or Edwards. Obama's ceiling is thought to be high because of his large number of small donors, although over 3/4 of his money in Q1 and Q2 came from maxed-out donors.

Edwards was a strong second in Q2 in terms of number of donors and top in terms of % raised from donors below $200, and if he continues that, it suggests he has a very high ceiling, should he get to the point that he becomes the clear alternative to Clinton.  

Lastly, reports that Biden is moving his entire staff to Iowa suggest he is at the point that he is campaigning just to stay relevant until Jan 14.


by desmoulins on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:28:39 PM EST

Re: The Money Game (none / 0)

There's another fundraising dynamic in play. What good ol' Pat Buchanan called yesterday, "the stampede of the opportunists". The money players in the Democratic Party are at the point where they are afraid of missing the train as it leaves the station.

If you are a player, your worst nightmare is missing the opportunity to give to a winning  Democratic Presidential campaign.


by hwc on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:43:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Money Game (none / 0)

Who in the world is the Obama insider saying Hillary will raise around 30 million?  The pet dog?  That's just crazy- Obama I am sure if going to outraise her again, and again probably by a lot- I'm okay with that-


by reasonwarrior on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 01:54:03 PM EST

Re: The Money Game (none / 0)

Don't worry. I'm sure both campaign spokesmen were laughing. Clinton's crew predicted Obama would raise $30 million so Obama's guys upped the ante by predicting $35 million for Clinton. By the end of the month they'll both be predicting billions. It's all good clean fun.


by hwc on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 02:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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